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Geita Gold vs Kagera Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Geita Gold
Geita Gold
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
2/28/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 18Nyankumbu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Geita Gold43%
×Draw30%
Kagera Sugar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geita Gold
1.20
Kagera Sugar
0.90

Geita Gold creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 96 away

creates per match

Geita Gold
1.09
Kagera Sugar
0.75

allows per match

Geita Gold
1.04
Kagera Sugar
1.31

finishing

Geita Gold+0.00on par
Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geita Gold ↓

Kagera Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Geita Gold or draw
72%
Geita Gold or Kagera Sugar
70%
Draw or Kagera Sugar
57%

Winning margin

Geita Gold wins by 2+
19%
Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Geita Gold 1+ goals
70%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
34%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
12%
Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
59%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
23%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Geita Gold (draw refunded)
61%
Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geita Gold at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geita Gold attack 1.09 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + Geita Gold defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Geita Gold scores more
43%
level
30%
Kagera Sugar scores more
28%

Geita Gold at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Geita Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Geita Gold 0–0 Kagera Sugar

Geita Gold and Kagera Sugar drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Nyankumbu Stadium in Geita.