Kagera Sugar 1–2 Coastal Union: Result & Stats

Kagera Sugar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Coastal Union

5/21/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 28Kaitaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Kagera Sugar43%

×Draw31%

Coastal Union26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kagera SugarExpected goals in this matchCoastal Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.82

Kagera Sugar

1.13

Coastal Union

0.82

Kagera Sugar creates 38% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 111 away

0.97

creates per match

0.72

0.92

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Kagera Sugar

0.97

Coastal Union

0.72

allows per match

Kagera Sugar

0.92

Coastal Union

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagera Sugar ↓

Coastal Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kagera Sugar or draw

74%

Kagera Sugar or Coastal Union

69%

Draw or Coastal Union

57%

Winning margin

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+

18%

Coastal Union wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals

68%

Kagera Sugar 2+ goals

31%

Kagera Sugar 3+ goals

11%

Coastal Union 1+ goals

56%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

20%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)

62%

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagera Sugar at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagera Sugar attack 0.97 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Coastal Union attack 0.72 + Kagera Sugar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kagera Sugar scores more

43%

level

31%

Coastal Union scores more

26%

Kagera Sugar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kagera Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff