Coastal Union 1–0 Kagera Sugar: Result & Stats

Coastal Union

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kagera Sugar

10/29/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 9Sheikh Amri Abeid Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Coastal Union45%

×Draw31%

Kagera Sugar25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal UnionExpected goals in this matchKagera Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.77

Coastal Union

1.15

Kagera Sugar

0.77

Coastal Union creates 49% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 96 away

0.98

creates per match

0.75

0.79

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Coastal Union

0.98

Kagera Sugar

0.75

allows per match

Coastal Union

0.79

Kagera Sugar

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

Kagera Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw

75%

Coastal Union or Kagera Sugar

69%

Draw or Kagera Sugar

55%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+

19%

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals

68%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

32%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

11%

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals

54%

Kagera Sugar 2+ goals

18%

Kagera Sugar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

65%

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.79 · 110 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 0.98 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + Coastal Union defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Coastal Union scores more

45%

level

31%

Kagera Sugar scores more

25%

Coastal Union at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Coastal Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff