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Kafr Qasim vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
3/18/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 26HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kafr Qasim32%
×Draw26%
Ironi Tiberias42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kafr Qasim
1.19
Ironi Tiberias
1.40

Ironi Tiberias creates 18% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 36 away

creates per match

Kafr Qasim
1.25
Ironi Tiberias
1.64

allows per match

Kafr Qasim
1.16
Ironi Tiberias
1.14

finishing

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kafr Qasim ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kafr Qasim or draw
58%
Kafr Qasim or Ironi Tiberias
74%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
68%

Winning margin

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
13%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
70%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
33%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
12%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
75%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
41%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
43%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 131 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kafr Qasim attack 1.25 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kafr Qasim scores more
32%
level
26%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
42%

Ironi Tiberias at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Kafr Qasim 1–2 Ironi Tiberias

Ironi Tiberias beat Kafr Qasim 2-1 in Liga Leumit on March 18, 2024.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.