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Ironi Tiberias vs Kafr Qasim — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
12/8/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 11Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ironi Tiberias47%
×Draw27%
Kafr Qasim26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
1.38
Kafr Qasim
0.94

Ironi Tiberias creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 128 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.58
Kafr Qasim
1.06

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
0.82
Kafr Qasim
1.17

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Kafr Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
74%
Ironi Tiberias or Kafr Qasim
73%
Draw or Kafr Qasim
53%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
23%
Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
75%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
40%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
16%
Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
61%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
24%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
65%
Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Kafr Qasim away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.58 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kafr Qasim attack 1.06 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
47%
level
27%
Kafr Qasim scores more
26%

Ironi Tiberias at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Ironi Tiberias 5–1 Kafr Qasim

Ironi Tiberias beat Kafr Qasim 5-1 in Liga Leumit on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.