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Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit — Liga Leumit 2019

Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
5/9/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Relegation Round - 6Bat Yam Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Kafr Qasim40%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kafr Qasim
1.33
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.19

Kafr Qasim creates 12% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 113 away

creates per match

Kafr Qasim
1.25
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.23

allows per match

Kafr Qasim
1.16
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.42

finishing

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par
Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kafr Qasim ↓

Hapoel Nazareth Illit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kafr Qasim or draw
67%
Kafr Qasim or Hapoel Nazareth Illit
73%
Draw or Hapoel Nazareth Illit
60%

Winning margin

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
18%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
74%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
38%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
55%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kafr Qasim at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 131 matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kafr Qasim attack 1.25 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.23 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kafr Qasim scores more
40%
level
27%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
33%

Kafr Qasim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Kafr Qasim beat Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2-0 in Liga Leumit on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Bat Yam Municipal Stadium in Bat Yam.