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Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Kafr Qasim — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
1/31/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 21Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit41%
×Draw28%
Kafr Qasim32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.28
Kafr Qasim
1.10

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 16% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 128 away

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.39
Kafr Qasim
1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.15
Kafr Qasim
1.17

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par
Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Kafr Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw
68%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Kafr Qasim
72%
Draw or Kafr Qasim
59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
18%
Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
37%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
14%
Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
67%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
30%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
56%
Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

Kafr Qasim away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.39 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Kafr Qasim attack 1.06 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
41%
level
28%
Kafr Qasim scores more
32%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Kafr Qasim

Kafr Qasim beat Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1-0 in Liga Leumit on January 31, 2025.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nazareth Illit.