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Kaédi vs Gourel Sangue — Premier League 2020

Kaédi
Kaédi
FT
1 – 1
Gourel Sangue
Gourel Sangue
4/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaédi65%
×Draw20%
Gourel Sangue15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaédi
2.16
Gourel Sangue
0.94

Kaédi creates 130% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kaédi
1.09
Gourel Sangue
0.77

allows per match

Kaédi
1.10
Gourel Sangue
3.23

finishing

Kaédi+0.00on par
Gourel Sangue+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaédi ↓

Gourel Sangue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kaédi or draw
85%
Kaédi or Gourel Sangue
80%
Draw or Gourel Sangue
35%

Winning margin

Kaédi wins by 2+
41%
Gourel Sangue wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kaédi 1+ goals
88%
Kaédi 2+ goals
63%
Kaédi 3+ goals
36%
Gourel Sangue 1+ goals
61%
Gourel Sangue 2+ goals
24%
Gourel Sangue 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kaédi (draw refunded)
81%
Gourel Sangue (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaédi at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 78 matches

Gourel Sangue away — creates 0.77, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaédi attack 1.09 + Gourel Sangue defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.16

Gourel Sangue attack 0.77 + Kaédi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kaédi scores more
65%
level
20%
Gourel Sangue scores more
15%

Kaédi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kaédi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaédi vs Gourel Sangue

Kaédi and Gourel Sangue drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.