Gourel Sangue 0–2 Kaédi: Result & Stats

Gourel Sangue

FT

0 – 2

Kaédi

11/2/2021

Premier League · Round 5Stade de Kaédi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gourel Sangue32%

×Draw27%

Kaédi41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gourel SangueExpected goals in this matchKaédi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.32

Gourel Sangue

1.13

Kaédi

1.32

Kaédi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

0.62

creates per match

0.88

1.77

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Gourel Sangue

0.62

Kaédi

0.88

allows per match

Gourel Sangue

1.77

Kaédi

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gourel Sangue+0.00on par

Kaédi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gourel Sangue ↓

Kaédi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gourel Sangue or draw

59%

Gourel Sangue or Kaédi

73%

Draw or Kaédi

68%

Winning margin

Gourel Sangue wins by 2+

13%

Kaédi wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gourel Sangue 1+ goals

68%

Gourel Sangue 2+ goals

31%

Gourel Sangue 3+ goals

11%

Kaédi 1+ goals

73%

Kaédi 2+ goals

38%

Kaédi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gourel Sangue (draw refunded)

44%

Kaédi (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gourel Sangue at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Kaédi away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.64 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gourel Sangue attack 0.62 + Kaédi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kaédi attack 0.88 + Gourel Sangue defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gourel Sangue scores more

32%

level

27%

Kaédi scores more

41%

Kaédi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kaédi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff