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KAC Soccer vs Mighty Royals — Division One League 2025

KAC Soccer
KAC Soccer
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mighty Royals
Mighty Royals
2/22/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KAC Soccer58%
×Draw23%
Mighty Royals20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Soccer
1.85
Mighty Royals
0.97

KAC Soccer creates 91% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

KAC Soccer
1.57
Mighty Royals
1.07

allows per match

KAC Soccer
0.86
Mighty Royals
2.14

finishing

KAC Soccer+0.00on par
Mighty Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Soccer ↓

Mighty Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

KAC Soccer or draw
80%
KAC Soccer or Mighty Royals
77%
Draw or Mighty Royals
42%

Winning margin

KAC Soccer wins by 2+
33%
Mighty Royals wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

KAC Soccer 1+ goals
84%
KAC Soccer 2+ goals
55%
KAC Soccer 3+ goals
28%
Mighty Royals 1+ goals
62%
Mighty Royals 2+ goals
25%
Mighty Royals 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KAC Soccer (draw refunded)
75%
Mighty Royals (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Soccer at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Mighty Royals away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Soccer attack 1.57 + Mighty Royals defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.85

Mighty Royals attack 1.07 + KAC Soccer defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

KAC Soccer scores more
58%
level
23%
Mighty Royals scores more
20%

KAC Soccer at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "KAC Soccer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAC Soccer vs Mighty Royals

KAC Soccer beat Mighty Royals 2-1 in Division One League on February 22, 2026.