KAC Kenitra 1–2 Ittihad Khemisset: Result & Stats

KAC Kenitra

FT

1 – 2

Ittihad Khemisset

2/27/2021

Botola 2 · Round 12Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

KAC Kenitra42%

×Draw28%

Ittihad Khemisset30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAC KenitraExpected goals in this matchIttihad Khemisset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.02

KAC Kenitra

1.26

Ittihad Khemisset

1.02

KAC Kenitra creates 24% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

1.25

creates per match

1.03

1.00

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

KAC Kenitra

1.25

Ittihad Khemisset

1.03

allows per match

KAC Kenitra

1.00

Ittihad Khemisset

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Ittihad Khemisset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw

70%

KAC Kenitra or Ittihad Khemisset

72%

Draw or Ittihad Khemisset

58%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+

19%

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals

72%

KAC Kenitra 2+ goals

36%

KAC Kenitra 3+ goals

13%

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals

64%

Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals

27%

Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)

58%

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Ittihad Khemisset away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.27 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.25 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Ittihad Khemisset attack 1.03 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more

42%

level

28%

Ittihad Khemisset scores more

30%

KAC Kenitra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff