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Ittihad Khemisset vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
FT
0 – 1
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
6/18/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 27Stade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset40%
×Draw30%
KAC Kenitra30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Khemisset
1.12
KAC Kenitra
0.93

Ittihad Khemisset creates 20% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.99
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.92
KAC Kenitra
1.25

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw
70%
Ittihad Khemisset or KAC Kenitra
70%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
60%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
16%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
67%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
31%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
10%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
61%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
24%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
57%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.12

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more
40%
level
30%
KAC Kenitra scores more
30%

Ittihad Khemisset at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Khemisset vs KAC Kenitra

KAC Kenitra beat Ittihad Khemisset 1-0 in Botola 2 on June 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre in Khémisset.