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KAC Kenitra vs Chabab Ben Guerir — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
Unknown 90+10', 45'
H. Ghazouan 25'
N. Moustaghfir 19'
11/2/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 5Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

KAC Kenitra43%
×Draw29%
Chabab Ben Guerir28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.23
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.92

KAC Kenitra creates 34% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 120 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.26
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.83

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.21

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
72%
KAC Kenitra or Chabab Ben Guerir
71%
Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir
57%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
19%
Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
71%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
35%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
13%
Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
60%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
23%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
61%
Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.83 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
43%
level
29%
Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
28%

KAC Kenitra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
N. Moustaghfir
25'
H. Ghazouan
45'
90+10'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: KAC Kenitra 2–2 Chabab Ben Guerir

KAC Kenitra and Chabab Ben Guerir drew 2-2 in Botola 2 on November 2, 2024.

Goals: N. Moustaghfir (19'), H. Ghazouan (25'), ? (45', 90+10').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.