Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chabab Ben Guerir vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
10/4/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir41%
×Draw31%
KAC Kenitra28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Ben Guerir
1.08
KAC Kenitra
0.83

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 30% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 73 away

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.91
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.74
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw
72%
Chabab Ben Guerir or KAC Kenitra
69%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
59%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
17%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
66%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
29%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
10%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
56%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
20%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
60%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.74 · 118 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.91 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
41%
level
31%
KAC Kenitra scores more
28%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Ben Guerir vs KAC Kenitra

Chabab Ben Guerir beat KAC Kenitra 1-0 in Botola 2 on October 4, 2025.