Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kabwe Warriors vs Forest Rangers — Super League 2019

Kabwe Warriors
Kabwe Warriors
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
12/30/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Godfrey Chitalu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Kabwe Warriors43%
×Draw30%
Forest Rangers27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabwe Warriors
1.17
Forest Rangers
0.86

Kabwe Warriors creates 36% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

creates per match

Kabwe Warriors
1.17
Forest Rangers
1.00

allows per match

Kabwe Warriors
0.72
Forest Rangers
1.18

finishing

Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par
Forest Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabwe Warriors ↓

Forest Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kabwe Warriors or draw
73%
Kabwe Warriors or Forest Rangers
70%
Draw or Forest Rangers
57%

Winning margin

Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+
18%
Forest Rangers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals
69%
Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals
33%
Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals
11%
Forest Rangers 1+ goals
58%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
21%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)
61%
Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabwe Warriors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.72 · 111 matches

Forest Rangers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabwe Warriors attack 1.17 + Forest Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Forest Rangers attack 1.00 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kabwe Warriors scores more
43%
level
30%
Forest Rangers scores more
27%

Kabwe Warriors at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kabwe Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kabwe Warriors 1–0 Forest Rangers

Kabwe Warriors beat Forest Rangers 1-0 in Super League on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Godfrey Chitalu Stadium in Kabwe.