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Forest Rangers vs Kabwe Warriors — Super League 2019

Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kabwe Warriors
Kabwe Warriors
L. Moyela 43' (pen)
B. Tembo 20'
1/14/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Dag Hammerskjold Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Forest Rangers38%
×Draw33%
Kabwe Warriors29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Rangers
0.99
Kabwe Warriors
0.83

Forest Rangers creates 19% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

creates per match

Forest Rangers
1.06
Kabwe Warriors
0.90

allows per match

Forest Rangers
0.77
Kabwe Warriors
0.92

finishing

Forest Rangers+0.00on par
Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Rangers ↓

Kabwe Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Forest Rangers or draw
71%
Forest Rangers or Kabwe Warriors
67%
Draw or Kabwe Warriors
62%

Winning margin

Forest Rangers wins by 2+
14%
Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Forest Rangers 1+ goals
63%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
26%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
8%
Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals
56%
Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals
20%
Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
56%
Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Rangers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Kabwe Warriors away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Rangers attack 1.06 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Kabwe Warriors attack 0.90 + Forest Rangers defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Forest Rangers scores more
38%
level
33%
Kabwe Warriors scores more
29%

Forest Rangers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Forest Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
B. Tembo
43'
L. MoyelaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Forest Rangers 1–1 Kabwe Warriors

Forest Rangers and Kabwe Warriors drew 1-1 in Super League on January 14, 2023.

Goals: B. Tembo (20'), L. Moyela (43' pen).

The match was played at Dag Hammerskjold Stadium in Ndola.