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Kabuscorp vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2019

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
FT
2 – 2
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
5/7/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 28Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Kabuscorp43%
×Draw29%
Bravos do Maquis FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
1.21
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.90

Kabuscorp creates 34% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 106 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.33
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.84
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.09

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
73%
Kabuscorp or Bravos do Maquis FC
71%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
57%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
19%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
70%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
34%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
12%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
59%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
23%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
61%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.33 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + Kabuscorp defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
43%
level
29%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
27%

Kabuscorp at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kabuscorp vs Bravos do Maquis FC

Kabuscorp and Bravos do Maquis FC drew 2-2 in Girabola on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.