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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Kabuscorp — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
E. Ferreira 89'
Nigo 29'
Mafuta 75'
Christian 57'
10/19/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 6Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC45%
×Draw30%
Kabuscorp25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.20
Kabuscorp
0.80

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 65 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Kabuscorp
0.86

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.75
Kabuscorp
1.09

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Kabuscorp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
75%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Kabuscorp
70%
Draw or Kabuscorp
55%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
20%
Kabuscorp wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
70%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
34%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
12%
Kabuscorp 1+ goals
55%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
19%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
65%
Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 105 matches

Kabuscorp away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Kabuscorp defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kabuscorp attack 0.86 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
45%
level
30%
Kabuscorp scores more
25%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Nigo
57'
Christian
75'
Mafuta
89'
E. Ferreira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Bravos do Maquis FC 2–2 Kabuscorp

Bravos do Maquis FC and Kabuscorp drew 2-2 in Girabola on October 19, 2024.

Goals: Nigo (29'), Christian (57'), Mafuta (75'), E. Ferreira (89').

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe in Moxico.