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Kablovi Zaječar vs Jedinstvo Paraćin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
FT
0 – 2
Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
9/16/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 7Stadion FK Kablovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kablovi Zaječar19%
×Draw19%
Jedinstvo Paraćin62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kablovi Zaječar
1.28
Jedinstvo Paraćin
2.44

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 91% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

creates per match

Kablovi Zaječar
0.95
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.04

allows per match

Kablovi Zaječar
3.84
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.61

finishing

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kablovi Zaječar ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kablovi Zaječar or draw
38%
Kablovi Zaječar or Jedinstvo Paraćin
81%
Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin
81%

Winning margin

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
8%
Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
72%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
37%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
14%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
91%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
70%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kablovi Zaječar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 3.84 · 19 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.95 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.28

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kablovi Zaječar scores more
19%
level
19%
Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
62%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kablovi Zaječar vs Jedinstvo Paraćin

Jedinstvo Paraćin beat Kablovi Zaječar 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kablovi in Zaječar.