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Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Kablovi Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
FT
10 – 2
Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
4/4/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin87%
×Draw9%
Kablovi Zaječar5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Paraćin
3.75
Kablovi Zaječar
0.85

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 341% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 19 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Kablovi Zaječar
0.53

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.17
Kablovi Zaječar
5.84

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par
Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw
95%
Jedinstvo Paraćin or Kablovi Zaječar
91%
Draw or Kablovi Zaječar
13%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
71%
Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
97%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
88%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
70%
Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
57%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
21%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
95%
Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 3.75

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
87%
level
9%
Kablovi Zaječar scores more
5%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Paraćin 10–2 Kablovi Zaječar

Jedinstvo Paraćin beat Kablovi Zaječar 10-2 in Srpska Liga - East on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Jagodina.