Kablovi Zaječar 3–2 Dunav Prahovo: Result & Stats

Kablovi Zaječar

FT

3 – 2

Dunav Prahovo

8/23/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion FK Kablovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kablovi Zaječar21%

×Draw19%

Dunav Prahovo59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kablovi ZaječarExpected goals in this matchDunav Prahovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.44

Kablovi Zaječar

1.42

Dunav Prahovo

2.44

Dunav Prahovo creates 72% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

0.95

creates per match

1.05

3.84

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Kablovi Zaječar

0.95

Dunav Prahovo

1.05

allows per match

Kablovi Zaječar

3.84

Dunav Prahovo

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kablovi Zaječar ↓

Dunav Prahovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Kablovi Zaječar or draw

41%

Kablovi Zaječar or Dunav Prahovo

81%

Draw or Dunav Prahovo

79%

Winning margin

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+

9%

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals

76%

Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals

41%

Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals

17%

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals

91%

Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals

70%

Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)

27%

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kablovi Zaječar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 3.84 · 19 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.95 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kablovi Zaječar scores more

21%

level

19%

Dunav Prahovo scores more

59%

Dunav Prahovo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff