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Dunav Prahovo vs Kablovi Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
FT
2 – 0
Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
3/13/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 21Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dunav Prahovo87%
×Draw8%
Kablovi Zaječar4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Prahovo
3.76
Kablovi Zaječar
0.81

Dunav Prahovo creates 364% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.69
Kablovi Zaječar
0.53

allows per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.09
Kablovi Zaječar
5.84

finishing

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par
Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Prahovo ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Dunav Prahovo or draw
96%
Dunav Prahovo or Kablovi Zaječar
92%
Draw or Kablovi Zaječar
13%

Winning margin

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
72%
Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
97%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
88%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
70%
Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
56%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
19%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
95%
Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Prahovo at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.69 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 3.76

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Dunav Prahovo scores more
87%
level
8%
Kablovi Zaječar scores more
4%

Dunav Prahovo at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dunav Prahovo 2–0 Kablovi Zaječar

Dunav Prahovo beat Kablovi Zaječar 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.