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Kaan-Marienborn vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
FT
6 – 1
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
10/4/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7Sportplatz Breitenbachtal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaan-Marienborn75%
×Draw14%
Hammer SpVg10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaan-Marienborn
2.84
Hammer SpVg
0.97

Kaan-Marienborn creates 193% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kaan-Marienborn
3.21
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

Kaan-Marienborn
1.00
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaan-Marienborn ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kaan-Marienborn or draw
90%
Kaan-Marienborn or Hammer SpVg
86%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
25%

Winning margin

Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
55%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
94%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
77%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
53%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
62%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
25%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
88%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaan-Marienborn at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaan-Marienborn attack 3.21 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.84

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Kaan-Marienborn scores more
75%
level
14%
Hammer SpVg scores more
10%

Kaan-Marienborn at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Kaan-Marienborn 6–1 Hammer SpVg

Kaan-Marienborn beat Hammer SpVg 6-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Breitenbachtal in Siegen.