Hammer SpVg vs Kaan-Marienborn

Hammer SpVg

CANC

17:00

Kaan-Marienborn

4/1/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 2824nexx Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hammer SpVg25%

×Draw20%

Kaan-Marienborn54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammer SpVgExpected goals in this matchKaan-Marienborn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.24

Hammer SpVg

1.48

Kaan-Marienborn

2.24

Kaan-Marienborn creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.84

creates per match

2.59

1.89

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Hammer SpVg

1.84

Kaan-Marienborn

2.59

allows per match

Hammer SpVg

1.89

Kaan-Marienborn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammer SpVg ↓

Kaan-Marienborn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hammer SpVg or draw

46%

Hammer SpVg or Kaan-Marienborn

80%

Draw or Kaan-Marienborn

75%

Winning margin

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+

11%

Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals

77%

Hammer SpVg 2+ goals

43%

Hammer SpVg 3+ goals

19%

Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals

89%

Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals

65%

Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)

32%

Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammer SpVg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Kaan-Marienborn away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammer SpVg attack 1.84 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kaan-Marienborn attack 2.59 + Hammer SpVg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hammer SpVg scores more

25%

level

20%

Kaan-Marienborn scores more

54%

Kaan-Marienborn at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff