Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KA Akureyri vs GAP Connah S Quay FC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
D. Hafsteinsson 83'
Hallgrímur Steingrímsson 60'
7/13/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundFramvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KA Akureyri52%
×Draw21%
GAP Connah S Quay FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KA Akureyri
2.13
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.50

KA Akureyri creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

KA Akureyri
2.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.00

allows per match

KA Akureyri
2.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.25

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par
GAP Connah S Quay FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

GAP Connah S Quay FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw
73%
KA Akureyri or GAP Connah S Quay FC
79%
Draw or GAP Connah S Quay FC
48%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+
31%
GAP Connah S Quay FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals
88%
KA Akureyri 2+ goals
63%
KA Akureyri 3+ goals
35%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 1+ goals
78%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 2+ goals
44%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)
66%
GAP Connah S Quay FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

GAP Connah S Quay FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 2.00 + GAP Connah S Quay FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

GAP Connah S Quay FC attack 1.00 + KA Akureyri defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

KA Akureyri scores more
52%
level
21%
GAP Connah S Quay FC scores more
27%

KA Akureyri at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Noah Edwards
59'
B. Baldvinsson← Þ. Þórisson
59'
P. Petersen← J. Árnason
60'
Hallgrímur Steingrímsson
71'
B. Aðalsteinsson← A. Stefánsson
71'
E. Aðal­steins­son← Á. Sigurgeirsson
72'
A. Williams← J. Williams
72'
C. Morris← N. Edwards
72'
M. Wilde← H. Franklin
83'
D. Hafsteinsson
86'
Michael Wilde
88'
Declan Poole
90+2'
Callum Morris
90+3'
H. Willard← Hallgrímur Steingrímsson

Shots

6KA

Statistics

KAGAP
Overview
6Total Shots3
11Corners3
10Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots3
1Off Target3
Discipline
10Fouls7

UEFA Europa Conference League: KA Akureyri 2–0 GAP Connah S Quay FC

KA Akureyri beat GAP Connah S Quay FC 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 13, 2023.

Goals: Hallgrímur Steingrímsson (60'), D. Hafsteinsson (83').

The match was played at Framvöllur in Reykjavík.