GAP Connah S Quay FC 0–2 KA Akureyri

GAP Connah S Quay FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

KA Akureyri

E. Aðalsteinsson 77'

D. Hafsteinsson 16'

7/20/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundPark Hall Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

GAP Connah S Quay FC40%

×Draw25%

KA Akureyri35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GAP Connah S Quay FCExpected goals in this matchKA Akureyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.38

GAP Connah S Quay FC

1.50

KA Akureyri

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

1.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

GAP Connah S Quay FC

1.00

KA Akureyri

1.50

allows per match

GAP Connah S Quay FC

1.25

KA Akureyri

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GAP Connah S Quay FC+0.00on par

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAP Connah S Quay FC ↓

KA Akureyri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw

65%

GAP Connah S Quay FC or KA Akureyri

75%

Draw or KA Akureyri

60%

Winning margin

GAP Connah S Quay FC wins by 2+

19%

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1+ goals

78%

GAP Connah S Quay FC 2+ goals

44%

GAP Connah S Quay FC 3+ goals

19%

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

75%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

40%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

GAP Connah S Quay FC (draw refunded)

54%

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAP Connah S Quay FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

KA Akureyri away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAP Connah S Quay FC attack 1.00 + KA Akureyri defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

KA Akureyri attack 1.50 + GAP Connah S Quay FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

GAP Connah S Quay FC scores more

40%

level

25%

KA Akureyri scores more

35%

GAP Connah S Quay FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GAP Connah S Quay FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

16'

19'

46'

57'

57'

J. Árnason← P. Petersen

68'

Kai Edwards

69'

E. Aðalsteinsson← Á. Sigurgeirsson

77'

E. Aðalsteinsson

83'

John Disney

84'

Paulo Mendes← H. Franklin

84'

A. Williams← C. Morris

84'

J. Williams← D. Poole

88'

I. Støle← D. Hafsteinsson

88'

V. Sævarsson← Hrannar Steingrímsson

Statistics

GAPKA

Overview

1Corners4

Discipline

4Yellow Cards1