KA Akureyri 2–0 Fram Reykjavik: Result & Stats

KA Akureyri

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fram Reykjavik

J. S. Edmundsson 35'

B. Baldvinsson 33'

8/24/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 20Greifavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

KA Akureyri49%

×Draw22%

Fram Reykjavik29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchFram Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.48

KA Akureyri

1.95

Fram Reykjavik

1.48

KA Akureyri creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

1.81

creates per match

1.59

1.38

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

KA Akureyri

1.81

Fram Reykjavik

1.59

allows per match

KA Akureyri

1.38

Fram Reykjavik

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Fram Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

71%

KA Akureyri or Fram Reykjavik

78%

Draw or Fram Reykjavik

51%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

27%

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

86%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

58%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

31%

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals

77%

Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals

43%

Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

62%

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Fram Reykjavik away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.81 + Fram Reykjavik defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.95

Fram Reykjavik attack 1.59 + KA Akureyri defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

49%

level

22%

Fram Reykjavik scores more

29%

KA Akureyri at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Romer

33'

B. Baldvinsson

35'

J. S. Edmundsson↳ I. Stole

39'

K. McLagan

46'

F. Sigurdsson← K. McLagan

50'

J. S. Edmundsson

59'

S. Tibbling

61'

M. Thordarson← J. Bystrom

68'

B. Adalsteinsson← M. Romer

74'

A. Sigurgeirsson← I. Stole

77'

A. Elisson← M. Aegisson

77'

T. Geirsson← Fred Saraiva

78'

M. Thordarson

84'

H. Steingrimsson← B. Baldvinsson

84'

D. Valsson← B. Ingason

KA

Fram

22

Sigurdsso

23

▼

Aegisson

5

▼

16

26

8

19

10

▼

Saraiva

9

Hauksson

15

▼

12

13

30

2

⚽

▼

4

28

5

26

A

▼

Stole

8

▼

Romer

7

⚽

Edmundsso

10

Steingrim

17

▼

Ingason

Manager: Hallgrímur Jónasson

68'▲B. Adalsteinsson←▼M. Romer

74'▲A. Sigurgeirsson←▼I. Stole

84'▲H. Steingrimsson←▼B. Baldvinsson

84'▲D. Valsson←▼B. Ingason

KA Akureyri substitutes

12Tonning22Steingrimsson77Adalsteinsson14Stefansson44Saevarsson25Valsson21Thordarson9Kjartansson11Sigurgeirsson

Manager: Rúnar Kristinsson

46'▲F. Sigurdsson←▼K. McLagan

61'▲M. Thordarson←▼J. Bystrom

77'▲A. Elisson←▼M. Aegisson

77'▲T. Geirsson←▼Fred Saraiva

Fram Reykjavik substitutes

1Arnaldarson71Elisson3Thorbjornsson32Andrason6Geirsson30Konradsson25Sigurdsson11Thordarson