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KA Akureyri vs Fram Reykjavik — League #168 2026

KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
Unknown 87', 21'
Unknown 60', 48', 45+3', 29', 20'
2/27/2025League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 4Greifavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KA Akureyri18%
×Draw15%
Fram Reykjavik66%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KA Akureyri
1.77
Fram Reykjavik
3.33

Fram Reykjavik creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

KA Akureyri
1.20
Fram Reykjavik
3.67

allows per match

KA Akureyri
3.00
Fram Reykjavik
2.33

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par
Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Fram Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw
34%
KA Akureyri or Fram Reykjavik
85%
Draw or Fram Reykjavik
82%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+
8%
Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals
83%
KA Akureyri 2+ goals
53%
KA Akureyri 3+ goals
26%
Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals
96%
Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals
84%
Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)
22%
Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Fram Reykjavik away — creates 3.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.20 + Fram Reykjavik defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Fram Reykjavik attack 3.67 + KA Akureyri defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

KA Akureyri scores more
18%
level
15%
Fram Reykjavik scores more
66%

Fram Reykjavik at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
21'
29'
41'
45+3'
48'
53'
57'
60'
64'
76'
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KA Akureyri vs Fram Reykjavik

Fram Reykjavik beat KA Akureyri 5-2 in League #168 on February 27, 2025.

Goals: ? (20', 21', 29', 45+3', 48', 60', 87').

The match was played at Greifavöllurinn in Akureyri.