KA Akureyri 3–2 FH hafnarfjordur: Result & Stats

KA Akureyri

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FH hafnarfjordur

B. Adalsteinsson 83'

I. Arnason 62'

H. Steingrimsson 14'

Rodri 83' (OG)

B. Bodvarsson 29'

4/27/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 4Greifavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

KA Akureyri49%

×Draw21%

FH hafnarfjordur29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchFH hafnarfjordur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.55

KA Akureyri

2.06

FH hafnarfjordur

1.55

KA Akureyri creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

1.82

creates per match

1.68

1.43

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

KA Akureyri

1.82

FH hafnarfjordur

1.68

allows per match

KA Akureyri

1.43

FH hafnarfjordur

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

FH hafnarfjordur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

71%

KA Akureyri or FH hafnarfjordur

79%

Draw or FH hafnarfjordur

51%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

29%

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

87%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

61%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

34%

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

79%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

46%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

63%

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

FH hafnarfjordur away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.82 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.06

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.68 + KA Akureyri defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

49%

level

21%

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

29%

KA Akureyri at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

H. Steingrimsson

29'

B. Bodvarsson↳ T. Robertsson

35'

T. Robertsson

39'

G. Gunnarsson

40'

B. Helgason

62'

I. Arnason↳ H. Steingrimsson

70'

A. Gudjohnsen← K. Finnbogason

70'

E. Ingvarsson← B. Helgason

77'

J. Arnason← H. Steingrimsson

77'

D. Traustason← S. Hallsson

77'

A. Gudmundsson← A. Faqa

82'

V. Kjartansson← J. S. Edmundsson

83'

RodriOwn goal

83'

B. Adalsteinsson↳ A. Sigurgeirsson

85'

G. Gislason← K. Halldorsson

89'

M. Thordarson← B. Adalsteinsson

KA

FH

13

Rosenorn

21

⚽

Bodvarsso

6

Gunnarsso

2

Jonsson

45

▼

Finnbogas

4

▼

Faqa

23

A

Robertsso

37

▼

Helgason

9

▼

Hallsson

33

Bjornsson

7

▼

Halldorss

13

Audunsson

22

⚽

▼

Steingrim

5

⚽

Arnason

30

Hrafnkels

7

▼

Edmundsso

8

Romer

10

A

Steingrim

4

🥅

Rodri

28

Gudmundss

77

⚽

▼

Adalstein

11

A

Sigurgeir

Manager: Hallgrímur Jónasson

77'▲J. Arnason←▼H. Steingrimsson

82'▲V. Kjartansson←▼J. S. Edmundsson

89'▲M. Thordarson←▼B. Adalsteinsson

KA Akureyri substitutes

9Kjartansson80Kristinsson21Thordarson3Gautason88Davidsson29Arnason2Baldvinsson26Stole12Tonning

Manager: Heimir Guðjónsson

70'▲A. Gudjohnsen←▼K. Finnbogason

70'▲E. Ingvarsson←▼B. Helgason

77'▲D. Traustason←▼S. Hallsson

77'▲A. Gudmundsson←▼A. Faqa

85'▲G. Gislason←▼K. Halldorsson

FH hafnarfjordur substitutes

36Traustason27Arnarsson90Gudjohnsen18Ingvarsson32Gislason11Bjarkason38Gudmundsson24Arnarsson