FH hafnarfjordur 5–0 KA Akureyri: Result & Stats

FH hafnarfjordur

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

KA Akureyri

K. Finnbogason 78'

S. Hallsson 68'

K. Halldorsson 65'

B. Sverrisson 42', 17'

7/13/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 15Kaplakriki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FH hafnarfjordur51%

×Draw21%

KA Akureyri27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FH hafnarfjordurExpected goals in this matchKA Akureyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.48

FH hafnarfjordur

2.08

KA Akureyri

1.48

FH hafnarfjordur creates 41% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

1.88

creates per match

1.55

1.42

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

FH hafnarfjordur

1.88

KA Akureyri

1.55

allows per match

FH hafnarfjordur

1.42

KA Akureyri

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FH hafnarfjordur ↓

KA Akureyri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FH hafnarfjordur or draw

73%

FH hafnarfjordur or KA Akureyri

79%

Draw or KA Akureyri

49%

Winning margin

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

30%

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

87%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

61%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

34%

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

77%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

43%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

65%

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FH hafnarfjordur at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

KA Akureyri away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.88 + KA Akureyri defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.08

KA Akureyri attack 1.55 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

51%

level

21%

KA Akureyri scores more

27%

FH hafnarfjordur at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FH hafnarfjordur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

B. Sverrisson

27'

T. Robertsson

42'

B. Sverrisson↳ B. Bodvarsson

45'

B. Baldvinsson

46'

J. S. Edmundsson← A. Sigurgeirsson

46'

J. Arnason← B. Baldvinsson

51'

Rodri

55'

J. Arnarsson← G. Gunnarsson

58'

S. Hallsson

64'

E. Ingvarsson← B. Bodvarsson

65'

K. Halldorsson↳ U. Bjornsson

68'

S. Hallsson↳ U. Bjornsson

74'

B. Brynjolfsson← T. Robertsson

74'

D. Fjeldsted← B. Sverrisson

74'

K. Finnbogason← U. Bjornsson

74'

K. Gautason← H. Steingrimsson

74'

V. Saevarsson← M. Romer

78'

K. Finnbogason↳ D. Fjeldsted

85'

M. M. Petursson← Rodri

FH

KA

12

Tonning

22

▼

Steingrim

2

▼

Baldvinss

5

Arnason

4

▼

Rodri

30

Hrafnkels

26

Stole

8

▼

Romer

11

▼

77

10

13

2

21

A

▼

Bodvarsso

23

▼

Robertsso

6

▼

Gunnarsso

22

Olafsson

9

⚽

Hallsson

37

Helgason

7

⚽

Halldorss

10

⚽2

▼

Sverrisso

33

A

▼

Bjornsson

Manager: Heimir Guðjónsson

55'▲J. Arnarsson←▼G. Gunnarsson

64'▲E. Ingvarsson←▼B. Bodvarsson

74'▲B. Brynjolfsson←▼T. Robertsson

74'▲D. Fjeldsted←▼B. Sverrisson

74'▲K. Finnbogason←▼U. Bjornsson

FH hafnarfjordur substitutes

24Arnarsson27Arnarsson38Gudmundsson34Steinbjornsson16Brynjolfsson17Fjeldsted18Ingvarsson45Finnbogason32Gislason

Manager: Hallgrímur Jónasson

46'▲J. S. Edmundsson←▼A. Sigurgeirsson

46'▲J. Arnason←▼B. Baldvinsson

74'▲K. Gautason←▼H. Steingrimsson

74'▲V. Saevarsson←▼M. Romer

85'▲M. M. Petursson←▼Rodri

KA Akureyri substitutes

13Audunsson3Gautason88Davidsson7Edmundsson23Petursson14Stefansson44Saevarsson25Valsson29Arnason