KA Akureyri 1–0 Afturelding: Result & Stats

KA Akureyri

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Afturelding

H. Steingrimsson 79'

5/24/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 8Greifavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KA Akureyri54%

×Draw22%

Afturelding23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchAfturelding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.15

KA Akureyri

1.89

Afturelding

1.15

KA Akureyri creates 64% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 14 away

1.78

creates per match

0.86

1.43

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

KA Akureyri

1.78

Afturelding

0.86

allows per match

KA Akureyri

1.43

Afturelding

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Afturelding+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Afturelding →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

77%

KA Akureyri or Afturelding

78%

Draw or Afturelding

46%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

31%

Afturelding wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

85%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

56%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

29%

Afturelding 1+ goals

68%

Afturelding 2+ goals

32%

Afturelding 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

70%

Afturelding (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Afturelding away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.78 + Afturelding defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Afturelding attack 0.86 + KA Akureyri defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

54%

level

22%

Afturelding scores more

23%

KA Akureyri at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

43'

45+1'

48'

61'

J. S. Edmundsson← M. Romer

61'

H. Steingrimsson← G. Hrafnkelsson

68'

E. Cogic← T. G. Hafthorsson

70'

B. Baldvinsson

70'

V. Kjartansson← J. Arnason

74'

E. Cogic

76'

E. Cogic

79'

H. Steingrimsson↳ B. Adalsteinsson

82'

A. Jonasson← S. Hugason

83'

I. Stole← A. Sigurgeirsson

90+2'

A. Jonasson

90+3'

J. S. Edmundsson

KA

Afturelding

1

3

25

2

6

16

19

▼

Hugason

10

Cogic

21

▼

77

20

13

5

2

30

▼

Hrafnkels

8

▼

Romer

10

⚽

Steingrim

4

Rodri

28

Gudmundss

29

▼

Arnason

77

A

Adalstein

11

▼

Sigurgeir

Manager: Hallgrímur Jónasson

61'▲J. S. Edmundsson←▼M. Romer

61'▲H. Steingrimsson←▼G. Hrafnkelsson

70'▲V. Kjartansson←▼J. Arnason

83'▲I. Stole←▼A. Sigurgeirsson

KA Akureyri substitutes

12Tonning7Edmundsson9Kjartansson14Stefansson22Steingrimsson25Valsson26Stole44Saevarsson88Davidsson

Manager: Magnús Már Einarsson

68'▲E. Cogic←▼T. G. Hafthorsson

82'▲A. Jonasson←▼S. Hugason

Afturelding substitutes

12Johannesson4Runolfsson8Jonsson9Jonasson22Grondal23Palsson27Cogic30Sigurjonsson