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KA Akureyri vs Afturelding — League #168 2026

KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Afturelding
Afturelding
H. Steingrimsson 60', 33'
A. Jonasson 30'
E. Cogic 25', 6'
1/13/2024League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 4Boginn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

KA Akureyri35%
×Draw19%
Afturelding46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KA Akureyri
2.20
Afturelding
2.50

Afturelding creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

KA Akureyri
1.20
Afturelding
2.00

allows per match

KA Akureyri
3.00
Afturelding
3.20

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par
Afturelding+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Afturelding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw
54%
KA Akureyri or Afturelding
81%
Draw or Afturelding
65%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+
19%
Afturelding wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals
89%
KA Akureyri 2+ goals
64%
KA Akureyri 3+ goals
37%
Afturelding 1+ goals
92%
Afturelding 2+ goals
71%
Afturelding 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)
44%
Afturelding (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Afturelding away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.20 + Afturelding defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.20

Afturelding attack 2.00 + KA Akureyri defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KA Akureyri scores more
35%
level
19%
Afturelding scores more
46%

Afturelding at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
E. Cogic
20'
B. Runolfsson
24'
H. Steingrimsson
25'
E. Cogic
28'
B. Baldvinsson
28'
T. Thrainsson
30'
A. Jonasson
33'
H. Steingrimsson
43'
I. Arnason
45'
B. B. Barkarson
57'
D. Hafsteinsson
59'
K. S. Hlifarsson
60'
H. Steingrimsson
63'
E. Cogic
64'
E. Cogic
64'
E. Cogic
65'
S. Hauksson← S. Hauksson
69'
H. Steingrimsson
90'
A. Sigurgeirsson← B. H. Baldursson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #168: KA Akureyri 2–3 Afturelding

Afturelding beat KA Akureyri 3-2 in League #168 on January 13, 2024.

Goals: E. Cogic (6', 25'), A. Jonasson (30'), H. Steingrimsson (33', 60').

The match was played at Boginn in Akureyri.