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Kırşehir Belediyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Kırşehir Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
A. Bel 88' (pen)
O. Dursun 56'
U. Bayraktar 13'
1/18/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 17Kırşehir Ahi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor63%
×Draw24%
Karaköprü Belediyespor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.67
Karaköprü Belediyespor
0.63

Kırşehir Belediyespor creates 165% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.67
Karaköprü Belediyespor
0.93

allows per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.33
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.67

finishing

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par
Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırşehir Belediyespor ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kırşehir Belediyespor or draw
86%
Kırşehir Belediyespor or Karaköprü Belediyespor
76%
Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor
37%

Winning margin

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
35%
Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
81%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
50%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
23%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
47%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
13%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
82%
Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırşehir Belediyespor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 1.67 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 0.93 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more
63%
level
24%
Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
14%

Kırşehir Belediyespor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kırşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
U. Bayraktar
56'
O. Dursun↳ Y. E. Karakaya
88'
A. BelPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kırşehir Belediyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor

Kırşehir Belediyespor beat Karaköprü Belediyespor 3-0 in League #553 on January 18, 2026.

Goals: U. Bayraktar (13'), O. Dursun (56'), A. Bel (88' pen).

The match was played at Kırşehir Ahi Stadyumu in Kırşehir.