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Kırklarelispor vs Gaziantep FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırklarelispor
Kırklarelispor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
12/5/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundKırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kırklarelispor45%
×Draw24%
Gaziantep FK31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırklarelispor
1.69
Gaziantep FK
1.36

Kırklarelispor creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kırklarelispor
1.69
Gaziantep FK
1.80

allows per match

Kırklarelispor
0.92
Gaziantep FK
1.70

finishing

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırklarelispor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kırklarelispor or draw
69%
Kırklarelispor or Gaziantep FK
76%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
55%

Winning margin

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+
24%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals
82%
Kırklarelispor 2+ goals
50%
Kırklarelispor 3+ goals
24%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
74%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
39%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)
59%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırklarelispor at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırklarelispor attack 1.69 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Gaziantep FK attack 1.80 + Kırklarelispor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kırklarelispor scores more
45%
level
24%
Gaziantep FK scores more
31%

Kırklarelispor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kırklarelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kırklarelispor 2–1 Gaziantep FK

Kırklarelispor beat Gaziantep FK 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 5, 2019.

The match was played at Kırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu in Kırklareli.