Gaziantep FK 3–2 Kırklarelispor: Result & Stats

Gaziantep FK

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kırklarelispor

12/18/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundGaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gaziantep FK53%

×Draw24%

Kırklarelispor23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gaziantep FKExpected goals in this matchKırklarelispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.03

Gaziantep FK

1.72

Kırklarelispor

1.03

Gaziantep FK creates 67% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

2.21

creates per match

1.23

0.84

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Gaziantep FK

2.21

Kırklarelispor

1.23

allows per match

Gaziantep FK

0.84

Kırklarelispor

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Kırklarelispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw

77%

Gaziantep FK or Kırklarelispor

76%

Draw or Kırklarelispor

47%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

29%

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

82%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

51%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

25%

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals

64%

Kırklarelispor 2+ goals

28%

Kırklarelispor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

70%

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Kırklarelispor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 2.21 + Kırklarelispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kırklarelispor attack 1.23 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more

53%

level

24%

Kırklarelispor scores more

23%

Gaziantep FK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff