Kırklarelispor 1–2 Fatih Karagümrük: Result & Stats

Kırklarelispor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Fatih Karagümrük

M. Pekesen 4'

M. Batdal 61'

Ç. Ortakaya 11'

3/2/2019

League #205 · Kırmızı - 24Kırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kırklarelispor42%

×Draw25%

Fatih Karagümrük34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KırklarelisporExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.34

Kırklarelispor

1.52

Fatih Karagümrük

1.34

Kırklarelispor creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

1.80

0.88

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Kırklarelispor

1.25

Fatih Karagümrük

1.80

allows per match

Kırklarelispor

0.88

Fatih Karagümrük

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırklarelispor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kırklarelispor or draw

66%

Kırklarelispor or Fatih Karagümrük

75%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

58%

Winning margin

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+

20%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals

78%

Kırklarelispor 2+ goals

45%

Kırklarelispor 3+ goals

20%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

74%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

39%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)

55%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırklarelispor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırklarelispor attack 1.25 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.80 + Kırklarelispor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kırklarelispor scores more

42%

level

25%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

34%

Kırklarelispor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kırklarelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Pekesen

11'

Ç. Ortakaya

43'

E. Keleşoğlu← Y. Şişman

60'

İ. Ayyıldız← D. Taşkesen

61'

62'

79'

86'

90+2'

U. Daşdemir← R. Civelek

Kırklarelispor

Fatih

13

3

20

23

35

25

▼

Alibaz

65

⚽

Ortakaya

28

▼

Civelek

19

Akyol

9

⚽

▼

8

13

12

2

3

77

▼

Çelik

20

▼

Taşkesen

70

▼

Şişman

41

Koca

7

Balkı

24

⚽

Pekesen

9

Köse

Manager: Ö. Serin

43'▲E. Keleşoğlu←▼Y. Şişman

60'▲İ. Ayyıldız←▼D. Taşkesen

62'▲N. Aşkın←▼Y. Çelik

Kırklarelispor substitutes

19Keleşoğlu55Ayyıldız5Aşkın39Bayram23Çiloğlu14Sayan72Çeliksu

Manager: A. Canel

79'▲B. Özbek←▼S. Alibaz

86'▲A. Aras←▼M. Batdal

90+2'▲U. Daşdemir←▼R. Civelek

Fatih Karagümrük substitutes

88Özbek39Aras41Daşdemir1Hocaoğlu7Şahin44Suçsuz67Erat