Fatih Karagümrük 2–0 Kırklarelispor: Result & Stats

Fatih Karagümrük

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kırklarelispor

Serdar Dursun 84', 54'

1/16/2024

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük45%

×Draw25%

Kırklarelispor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fatih KaragümrükExpected goals in this matchKırklarelispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.22

Fatih Karagümrük

1.56

Kırklarelispor

1.22

Fatih Karagümrük creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.89

creates per match

1.23

1.21

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.89

Kırklarelispor

1.23

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük

1.21

Kırklarelispor

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Kırklarelispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw

70%

Fatih Karagümrük or Kırklarelispor

75%

Draw or Kırklarelispor

55%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

23%

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

79%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

46%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

21%

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals

70%

Kırklarelispor 2+ goals

34%

Kırklarelispor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

60%

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Kırklarelispor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.89 + Kırklarelispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kırklarelispor attack 1.23 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

45%

level

25%

Kırklarelispor scores more

30%

Fatih Karagümrük at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Muharrem Dogan

45+2'

Bilal Musa Senturk

46'

V. Eysseric← A. Uğur

46'

D. Kourbelis← F. Paoletti

46'

S. Sözmen← D. Taşkan

46'

F. Güneş← E. Karataş

46'

Y. Candemir← B. Şentürk

47'

54'

62'

65'

67'

70'

77'

80'

L. Nicholas← A. Bertolacci

84'

Serdar Dursun

87'

S. Onur← K. Lasagna

Statistics

FatihKırklarelispor

Overview

5Corners1

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3