Kırklarelispor 0–0 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

Kırklarelispor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Başakşehir

1/21/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 8th FinalsKırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kırklarelispor41%

×Draw26%

Başakşehir33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KırklarelisporExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Kırklarelispor

1.42

Başakşehir

1.23

Kırklarelispor creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.69

creates per match

1.54

0.92

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Kırklarelispor

1.69

Başakşehir

1.54

allows per match

Kırklarelispor

0.92

Başakşehir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırklarelispor ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kırklarelispor or draw

67%

Kırklarelispor or Başakşehir

74%

Draw or Başakşehir

59%

Winning margin

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+

20%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals

76%

Kırklarelispor 2+ goals

41%

Kırklarelispor 3+ goals

17%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

71%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

35%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)

56%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırklarelispor at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırklarelispor attack 1.69 + Başakşehir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

Başakşehir attack 1.54 + Kırklarelispor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kırklarelispor scores more

41%

level

26%

Başakşehir scores more

33%

Kırklarelispor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kırklarelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff