Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Başakşehir vs Kırklarelispor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Başakşehir
Başakşehir
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kırklarelispor
Kırklarelispor
1/14/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 8th FinalsBaşakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Başakşehir58%
×Draw23%
Kırklarelispor19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Başakşehir
1.84
Kırklarelispor
0.96

Başakşehir creates 92% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Başakşehir
2.46
Kırklarelispor
1.23

allows per match

Başakşehir
0.69
Kırklarelispor
1.23

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par
Kırklarelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Kırklarelispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw
81%
Başakşehir or Kırklarelispor
77%
Draw or Kırklarelispor
42%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+
33%
Kırklarelispor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals
84%
Başakşehir 2+ goals
55%
Başakşehir 3+ goals
28%
Kırklarelispor 1+ goals
62%
Kırklarelispor 2+ goals
25%
Kırklarelispor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)
75%
Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Kırklarelispor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.46 + Kırklarelispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kırklarelispor attack 1.23 + Başakşehir defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Başakşehir scores more
58%
level
23%
Kırklarelispor scores more
19%

Başakşehir at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Başakşehir 1–1 Kırklarelispor

Başakşehir and Kırklarelispor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on January 14, 2020.

The match was played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in İstanbul.