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K. Lierse S.K. vs AS Eupen — League #145 2026

K. Lierse S.K.
K. Lierse S.K.
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
AS Eupen
AS Eupen
8/23/2025League #145League #145 · Round 3Herman Vanderpoortenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

K. Lierse S.K.39%
×Draw24%
AS Eupen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

K. Lierse S.K.
1.55
AS Eupen
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

K. Lierse S.K.
1.83
AS Eupen
1.40

allows per match

K. Lierse S.K.
1.58
AS Eupen
1.27

finishing

K. Lierse S.K.+0.00on par
AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K. Lierse S.K. ↓

AS Eupen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

K. Lierse S.K. or draw
63%
K. Lierse S.K. or AS Eupen
76%
Draw or AS Eupen
61%

Winning margin

K. Lierse S.K. wins by 2+
19%
AS Eupen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

K. Lierse S.K. 1+ goals
79%
K. Lierse S.K. 2+ goals
46%
K. Lierse S.K. 3+ goals
20%
AS Eupen 1+ goals
77%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
44%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

K. Lierse S.K. (draw refunded)
52%
AS Eupen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K. Lierse S.K. at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.83 + AS Eupen defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.55

AS Eupen attack 1.40 + K. Lierse S.K. defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

K. Lierse S.K. scores more
39%
level
24%
AS Eupen scores more
37%

K. Lierse S.K. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "K. Lierse S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #145: K. Lierse S.K. 3–2 AS Eupen

K. Lierse S.K. beat AS Eupen 3-2 in League #145 on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion in Lier.