AS Eupen 0–1 K. Lierse S.K.: Result & Stats

AS Eupen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

K. Lierse S.K.

M. Bokadi 6' (OG)

3/10/2026

League #145 · Round 29Kehrwegstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

AS Eupen57%

×Draw23%

K. Lierse S.K.20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS EupenExpected goals in this matchK. Lierse S.K.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.98

AS Eupen

1.82

K. Lierse S.K.

0.98

AS Eupen creates 86% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.73

creates per match

1.09

0.87

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

AS Eupen

1.73

K. Lierse S.K.

1.09

allows per match

AS Eupen

0.87

K. Lierse S.K.

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par

K. Lierse S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

K. Lierse S.K. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw

80%

AS Eupen or K. Lierse S.K.

77%

Draw or K. Lierse S.K.

43%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+

33%

K. Lierse S.K. wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals

84%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

54%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

27%

K. Lierse S.K. 1+ goals

62%

K. Lierse S.K. 2+ goals

26%

K. Lierse S.K. 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

74%

K. Lierse S.K. (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

K. Lierse S.K. away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.73 + K. Lierse S.K. defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.82

K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.09 + AS Eupen defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

AS Eupen scores more

57%

level

23%

K. Lierse S.K. scores more

20%

AS Eupen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. Matuta

K. Lierse S.K. · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

M. BokadiOwn goal

29'

Mark Müller

40'

Scott Kennedy

45+2'

Merveille Bokadi

46'

I. Plastun← S. Kennedy

49'

Noam Mayoka-Tika

63'

N. Bitumazala← B. Caliskan

63'

K. Youndje← G. Bares

63'

A. Keita← M. Muller

70'

E. Yeboah← L. Boncina

72'

Y. Zague← Y. Van Genechten

86'

90'

90'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ASK.

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots17

0.97Expected Goals (xG)1.12

8Corners5

15Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots17

2On Target3

9Off Target12

6Blocked2

10Inside Box10

7Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

445Total Passes354

333Accurate Passes263

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

2Red Cards0

3Offsides4