K-Järve JK Järve 2–2 Maardu: Result & Stats

K-Järve JK Järve

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Maardu

I. Jazev 80' (pen)

N. Apet 55'

V. Gussev 70' (pen), 59'

8/24/2016

Esiliiga A · Regular SeasonSpordikeskuse staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve24%

×Draw20%

Maardu56%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

K-Järve JK JärveExpected goals in this matchMaardu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

2.35

K-Järve JK Järve

1.51

Maardu

2.35

Maardu creates 56% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 37 away

1.18

creates per match

2.08

2.62

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve

1.18

Maardu

2.08

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve

2.62

Maardu

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Maardu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Maardu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw

44%

K-Järve JK Järve or Maardu

80%

Draw or Maardu

76%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

11%

Maardu wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

78%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

44%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

19%

Maardu 1+ goals

90%

Maardu 2+ goals

68%

Maardu 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

30%

Maardu (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.62 · 73 matches

Maardu away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.84 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.18 + Maardu defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.51

Maardu attack 2.08 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

24%

level

20%

Maardu scores more

56%

Maardu at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Maardu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

N. Apet

59'

V. Gussev

60'

V. Sokolov← R. Aasmäe

70'

V. GussevPenalty

75'

R. Saar← V. Kutuzov

80'

I. JazevPenalty

K-Järve

Maardu

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: A. Tihomirov

75'▲R. Saar←▼V. Kutuzov

K-Järve JK Järve substitutes

SaarZahharenkovDavidenko

Manager: J. Gurtšioglujants

60'▲V. Sokolov←▼R. Aasmäe

Maardu substitutes

SokolovJakovlevKrivošein