Maardu 2–0 K-Järve JK Järve: Result & Stats

Maardu

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

K-Järve JK Järve

8/1/2020

Esiliiga A · Round 15Maardu linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Maardu68%

×Draw17%

K-Järve JK Järve15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaarduExpected goals in this matchK-Järve JK Järve

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.16

Maardu

2.63

K-Järve JK Järve

1.16

Maardu creates 127% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 65 away

2.31

creates per match

0.98

1.33

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Maardu

2.31

K-Järve JK Järve

0.98

allows per match

Maardu

1.33

K-Järve JK Järve

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maardu+0.00on par

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maardu ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Maardu or draw

85%

Maardu or K-Järve JK Järve

83%

Draw or K-Järve JK Järve

32%

Winning margin

Maardu wins by 2+

47%

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Maardu 1+ goals

93%

Maardu 2+ goals

73%

Maardu 3+ goals

48%

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

69%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

32%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Maardu (draw refunded)

82%

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maardu at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maardu attack 2.31 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.63

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.98 + Maardu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Maardu scores more

68%

level

17%

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

15%

Maardu at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Maardu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff