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K-Järve JK Järve vs JK Tabasalu — Esiliiga A 2026

K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasalu
4/15/2023Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 7Kiviõli staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve37%
×Draw21%
JK Tabasalu42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

K-Järve JK Järve
1.89
JK Tabasalu
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 36 away

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve
1.14
JK Tabasalu
1.44

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve
2.65
JK Tabasalu
2.64

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par
JK Tabasalu+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

JK Tabasalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw
58%
K-Järve JK Järve or JK Tabasalu
79%
Draw or JK Tabasalu
63%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
19%
JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
85%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
56%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
29%
JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
87%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
60%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
46%
JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.65 · 71 matches

JK Tabasalu away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.14 + JK Tabasalu defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.89

JK Tabasalu attack 1.44 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more
37%
level
21%
JK Tabasalu scores more
42%

JK Tabasalu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: K-Järve JK Järve 2–5 JK Tabasalu

JK Tabasalu beat K-Järve JK Järve 5-2 in Esiliiga A on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Kiviõli staadion in Kiviõli.