JK Tabasalu 7–4 K-Järve JK Järve: Result & Stats

JK Tabasalu

FT

7 – 4

HT: 4 – 0

K-Järve JK Järve

7/22/2023

Esiliiga A · Round 21Tabasalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

JK Tabasalu56%

×Draw20%

K-Järve JK Järve25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JK TabasaluExpected goals in this matchK-Järve JK Järve

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.54

JK Tabasalu

2.37

K-Järve JK Järve

1.54

JK Tabasalu creates 54% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 65 away

1.78

creates per match

0.98

2.11

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

JK Tabasalu

1.78

K-Järve JK Järve

0.98

allows per match

JK Tabasalu

2.11

K-Järve JK Järve

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JK Tabasalu+0.00on par

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JK Tabasalu ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

JK Tabasalu or draw

75%

JK Tabasalu or K-Järve JK Järve

80%

Draw or K-Järve JK Järve

44%

Winning margin

JK Tabasalu wins by 2+

35%

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

JK Tabasalu 1+ goals

91%

JK Tabasalu 2+ goals

68%

JK Tabasalu 3+ goals

42%

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

79%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

45%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)

69%

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JK Tabasalu at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JK Tabasalu attack 1.78 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.37

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.98 + JK Tabasalu defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

JK Tabasalu scores more

56%

level

20%

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

25%

JK Tabasalu at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff