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K-Järve JK Järve vs Flora II — Esiliiga A 2026

K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Flora II
Flora II
7/8/2023Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 20Kiviõli Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve21%
×Draw19%
Flora II60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

K-Järve JK Järve
1.32
Flora II
2.34

Flora II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 125 away

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve
1.14
Flora II
2.03

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve
2.65
Flora II
1.50

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par
Flora II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Flora II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw
40%
K-Järve JK Järve or Flora II
81%
Draw or Flora II
79%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
8%
Flora II wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
73%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
38%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
15%
Flora II 1+ goals
90%
Flora II 2+ goals
67%
Flora II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
26%
Flora II (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.65 · 71 matches

Flora II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.50 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.14 + Flora II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Flora II attack 2.03 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more
21%
level
19%
Flora II scores more
60%

Flora II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: K-Järve JK Järve vs Flora II

Flora II beat K-Järve JK Järve 3-1 in Esiliiga A on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Kiviõli Arena in Kiviõli.