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Flora II vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

Flora II
Flora II
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
10/2/2022Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 30A. Le Coq Arena I muru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Flora II70%
×Draw16%
K-Järve JK Järve14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora II
2.76
K-Järve JK Järve
1.19

Flora II creates 132% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 69 away

creates per match

Flora II
2.39
K-Järve JK Järve
0.96

allows per match

Flora II
1.43
K-Järve JK Järve
3.13

finishing

Flora II+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora II ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Flora II or draw
86%
Flora II or K-Järve JK Järve
84%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
30%

Winning margin

Flora II wins by 2+
49%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Flora II 1+ goals
94%
Flora II 2+ goals
76%
Flora II 3+ goals
51%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
70%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
33%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Flora II (draw refunded)
83%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.43 · 125 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.13 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora II attack 2.39 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.76

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.96 + Flora II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Flora II scores more
70%
level
16%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
14%

Flora II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flora II 8 – 0 K-Järve JK Järve

Flora II beat K-Järve JK Järve 8-0 in Esiliiga A on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at A. Le Coq Arena I muru in Tallinn.