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Juventus vs Ferencvarosi TC — UEFA Champions League 2026

Juventus
Juventus
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
11/24/2020UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group G - 4Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus47%
×Draw24%
Ferencvarosi TC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
1.70
Ferencvarosi TC
1.29

Juventus creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.86
Ferencvarosi TC
1.58

allows per match

Juventus
1.00
Ferencvarosi TC
1.53

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par
Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
71%
Juventus or Ferencvarosi TC
76%
Draw or Ferencvarosi TC
53%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
25%
Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
82%
Juventus 2+ goals
51%
Juventus 3+ goals
24%
Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
72%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
37%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
62%
Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.86 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Ferencvarosi TC attack 1.58 + Juventus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Juventus scores more
47%
level
24%
Ferencvarosi TC scores more
29%

Juventus at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus vs Ferencvarosi TC

Juventus beat Ferencvarosi TC 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on November 24, 2020.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.