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Ferencvarosi TC vs Juventus — UEFA Champions League 2026

Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Juventus
Juventus
11/4/2020UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group G - 3Puskás Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC40%
×Draw24%
Juventus36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferencvarosi TC
1.64
Juventus
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC
1.85
Juventus
1.50

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Juventus
1.42

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par
Juventus+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw
64%
Ferencvarosi TC or Juventus
76%
Draw or Juventus
60%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
20%
Juventus wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
81%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
49%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
23%
Juventus 1+ goals
79%
Juventus 2+ goals
46%
Juventus 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
52%
Juventus (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 1.85 + Juventus defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Juventus attack 1.50 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more
40%
level
24%
Juventus scores more
36%

Ferencvarosi TC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferencvarosi TC vs Juventus

Juventus beat Ferencvarosi TC 4-1 in UEFA Champions League on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Puskás Aréna in Budapest.