Juventus U20 2–3 Água Santa U20: Result & Stats

Juventus U20

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Água Santa U20

F. Santos 59'

K. Oliveira 32'

Nicolas 45+2'

E. Vinicius 29'

M. V. Bonoto da Silva 7' (pen)

6/7/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Conde Rodolfo Crespi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Juventus U2050%

×Draw25%

Água Santa U2025%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus U20Expected goals in this matchÁgua Santa U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.06

Juventus U20

1.59

Água Santa U20

1.06

Juventus U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

1.18

creates per match

1.19

0.94

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Juventus U20

1.18

Água Santa U20

1.19

allows per match

Juventus U20

0.94

Água Santa U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus U20+0.00on par

Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Juventus U20 or draw

75%

Juventus U20 or Água Santa U20

75%

Draw or Água Santa U20

50%

Winning margin

Juventus U20 wins by 2+

26%

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Juventus U20 1+ goals

80%

Juventus U20 2+ goals

47%

Juventus U20 3+ goals

21%

Água Santa U20 1+ goals

65%

Água Santa U20 2+ goals

29%

Água Santa U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U20 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U20 attack 1.18 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Juventus U20 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Juventus U20 scores more

50%

level

25%

Água Santa U20 scores more

25%

Juventus U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Juventus U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. V. Bonoto da SilvaPenalty

29'

E. Vinicius

32'

K. Oliveira

45+2'

Nicolas

59'

F. Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff